It appears as though my first prediction already came true and Trump isn’t even in office yet! (I’m referring to my prediction that Trump would not even try to build a wall along the Mexico border. Somewhere I can find it written down months or even a year ago, but I posted it on my blog the day after the election.) Trump apparently likes to play the long game though, so I won’t count my eggs before they hatch. I’ll try not to say “Told you so” until 2020.
Meanwhile here are some more predictions:
- If he gets the chance, Trump will replace Scalia with a similarly conservative judge, but if there are other USSC vacancies in the next four years, Trump will fill them with judges who are relatively much more liberal.
- In general, Trump’s appointees (cabinet, etc.) will become more and more liberal over time.
- Trump’s policies will become more and more liberal as well, and he’ll defend himself from conservative critics by explaining that he gets advice from the best people (he might even use those words).
- Trump will not even attempt to withhold federal dollars from sanctuary cities. (Not without drastically redefining the term anyway.)
- Lone everyday voices on the Right will start to notice Trump’s backpedaling, but the conservative mass media (or whatever you want to call talk radio, Fox news, and most of the conservative pundits who weren’t Never Trumpers, etc.) will defend Trump.
- The Left will focus on pointing and laughing at Trump supporters who feel ripped off, and ignore the fact that the guy they thought was Hitler has turned out to be very close to what they wanted in a president.
- It will be easy to find people on the Alt Right (e.g. 5 minutes browsing Steve Sailer and his commenters) who focus on the few Trumpish things that are happening (an illegal immigrant being deported here, a Muslim terrorist being blocked from entering the country there) and imply that Trump is doing exactly what they’d hoped.
- For the most part, Republican voters will stay quiet or give Trump a free pass while he becomes more and more liberal.
As you might notice, I’m trying to limit my predictions to things that either Trump or specific groups of people will do. I don’t feel confident enough to predict general trends (e.g. “Muslim immigration will not substantially decrease,” “factory jobs will continue to disappear”) because there are too many other factors at play. And it’s too obvious to say that when good things happen, Trump and his supporters will thank Trump, while when bad things happen, the Left will blame Trump.